McHenry County Moves 2050

WisDOT prepares forecasts of roadway traffic volumes to project what might happen 20 to 30 years in the future. Although freight shipments by truck form the highest tonnage and value shipments across all modes, the current forecast estimates show a slower growth compared to other modes, with an increase of 12.4 percent by 2030 and 50.5 percent by 2050 for tonnage, and an increase of 18.2 percent by 2030 and 79.4 percent by 2050 by value. Wisconsin highways are still expected to carry almost 632 million tons of freight by 2050, valued at approximately $699 billion.

Overall railroad tonnage is predicted to increase by 96.1 percent statewide between 2022 and 2050. In addition, the value of this tonnage in 2050 is expected to more than double the value in 2022 (133.7 percent increase). Wisconsin rail lines are expected to carry 416 million tons of railroad cargo, valued at more than $411 billion, in 2050.

Overall water freight tonnage and value are expected to increase by 30.6 and 43.7 percent, respectively, between 2022 and 2050. These numbers represent the lowest expected growth across all freight modes in Wisconsin. In 2050, it is predicted that water freight will handle 3.4 percent of freight tonnage and less than one percent of freight value in Wisconsin.

While air cargo movement represents a relatively small percentage by volume of overall trade, relatively low-weight, time-sensitive, and high-value freight is important to Wisconsin’s economy. The forecast increase in air freight movement reflects a continuing business trend toward adopting just-in-time logistics practices where production flexibility and delivery speed are essential. Shipping via air can mean more quick and reliable business over long distances.

The total air tonnage is forecast to increase by 83.5 percent statewide between 2022 and 2050. The value of this tonnage is expected to increase by 123.9 percent. Airports are forecast to ship or receive more than 209 thousand tons of air freight, valued at more than $26 billion, in 2050.

Pipeline infrastructure and data are owned and maintained by private entities, and heightened security has resulted in pipeline-related data being highly inaccessible to the general public. Therefore, accurate forecasts are not publicly available.

Wisconsin has the smallest economy in the Great Lakes Regions (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio) accounting for 12 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) among the five states that make up the region. According to the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Wisconsin’s total GDP was $365.9 billion in 2021, which is about 1.6 percent of GDP nationwide. This puts Wisconsin at a ranking of 21st by state.

There are six prominent employment sectors that rely heavily on Wisconsin’s freight transportation system:

• Manufacturing
• Wholesale and Retail Trade
• Transportation, Information, and Utilities/Energy
• Construction
• Agriculture, Forestry, and Hunting
• Mining

These sectors account for 43% of Wisconsin’s total employment, slightly more than the national average, and are expected to grow. An efficient transportation system is paramount to the continued growth and success of these primary employment sectors and Wisconsin’s overall economy.

Wisconsin’s transportation system is part of larger regional, national, and continental networks used by companies to transport goods across North America. The growth in production, distribution, and consumption around the world has required the transportation sector to adapt to longer and more complex supply chains. Multiple modes of transportation are regularly required for products or material to reach their destination.

Refer to the State Freight Plan to learn more about global exports and imports.

COVID-19 Disruptions

The COVID-19 pandemic created massive disruptions to freight and supply chain movement. Both passenger and commercial vehicles saw a reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 2019 and 2020. While VMT for passenger vehicles has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, commercial vehicle volumes are exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The following are many of the challenges imposed on the global, national, and state supply chains since the onset of the pandemic:

• Workforce staffing issues
• Slower freight velocity
• Increased consumer demand
• Equipment availability and capacity
• Production interruptions
• Shipping costs

Other Disruptions

Global supply chains suffered additional disruptions from extreme-weather related events and operations impacts. These disruptions created a ripple-effect throughout the supply chain impacting both shipping costs and delivery time:

• Suez Canal Blockage
• British Columbia Wildfires in 2021
• Historic flooding in the US and Canada
• Significant winter storms

Freight infrastructure has changed over the past few decades with global supply chain trending towards larger facilities and equipment to store and transport freight and consolidation of freight transportation providers.

• Vessel Size Increases
• Panama Canal Expansion
• North American Port Expansions
• Longer Trains
• Inland/Dry Ports

Regulations on goods traded internationally directly impact the cost effectiveness of freight shipments. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has a direct impact on Wisconsin.

China

In 2018 a trade war between the United States and China resulted in increased tariffs on goods traded between the two countries. As of June 2022, 66.4 percent of Chinese exports ($335 billion in 2017 trade) are subject to U.S. tariffs; 58.3 percent of U.S. exports ($90 billion in 2017 trade) are subject to Chinese tariffs. Elevated tariffs are likely to continue, imposing higher costs on Wisconsin consumers.

Reshoring/Nearshoring

For the past few decades, the offshoring of goods production to overseas markets such as China has been a common trend. However, recently, some of these operations have seen a reverse—or modification—of this trend. Nearshoring refers to the relocation of production to markets closer to the final point of use, for example, shifting production from China to Mexico. Reshoring refers to the relocation of production back to the home country. In addition to these trends, some offshore production is also relocating to Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

E-Commerce has grown rapidly across the country, now accounting for 15 percent of all retail sales in the US.

Freight distribution is shifting towards more point-to-point shipments from warehouses to homes, creating more short trips in urban areas via parcel trucks. To accommodate increasing consumer demands for quicker product delivery, large regional distribution centers are supplying smaller “fulfillment centers” that are located within major metropolitan areas. This has been reflected in Wisconsin through the recent construction of multiple distribution centers.

With the continued growth of e-commerce and demand for quick product delivery, reliable transportation corridors will be vital for Wisconsin’ economic growth.

Wisconsin’s population has grown from 5.7 million in 2010 to 5.9 million in 2020. Population growth has been concentrated in urban and suburban areas while rural areas are experiencing population decline. This growth in urban areas could place challenges on transportation systems as more Wisconsinites driver further to get to jobs. It is expected Wisconsin’s population will grow an additional 10 percent by 2040.

Explore the demographic maps below. Click each thumbnail to view a larger image.

Wisconsin Multimodal Freight System

Hispanic or Latino Population

Black Population

American Indian or Alaska Native Population

Asian Population

Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Island Population

Other Race Population

Two or More Races Population

Population in Poverty

Disabled Population

Senior Population

Youth Population

Zero-Vehicle Households

Multiple innovative freight technologies are emerging and are expected to have an impact on the transportation of goods.

The following are some of the more-common emerging trends and challenges impacting different freight modes including highway, freight rail, ports and waterways, air cargo, pipeline and intermodal.

1. Enhance security of the transportation system by reducing vulnerability.
2. Partner with Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, environmental agencies, consumers and businesses to increase transportation sustainability.
3. Continue to support Metropolitan Planning Organizations, Regional Planning Commissions, and local partners in the implementation and execution of their freight policy.
4. Leverage the data, tools, and methods developed through the freight plan to help deliver SFP policies and strategies and inform project prioritization and investment decisions, as well as provide the data and tools to DOT partners as able.

1. Improve standards for infrastructure
2. Continue to work with other states and local communities to identify oversize-overweight harmonization opportunities.
3. Investigate ways to simplify, streamline, and provide more permitting options.
4. Implement cost-effective maintenance activities on Wisconsin’s state trunk highway infrastructure.
5. Preserve Wisconsin’s state trunk highway system infrastructure.
6. Preserve the local road and bridge system.
7. Complete currently enumerated Major Highway Development projects.
8. Complete currently enumerated Southeast Wisconsin Freeway Megaprojects Program.
9. Complete corridor studies approved by the Transportation Projects Commission.
10. Improve the reliability and efficiency of state trunk highway operations.
11. Optimize traffic movement on the state trunk highway system by utilizing tools to improve existing capacity and, where necessary, adding capacity.
12. Manage access on Wisconsin’s state trunk highway system
13. Plan and prepare for WisDOT’s prompt and consistent response to incidents.
14. Continue using a performance-based approach to identify state trunk highway system preservation needs, including development of a bridge asset management system.
15. Refine and expand a state-of-the-art process for prioritizing needs and identifying cost-effective state trunk highway system preservation needs.
16. As needed, revise the Facilities Development Manual (FDM) to more clearly include freight considerations in its project development guidance.
17. Preserve a sub-system of Wisconsin’s State Highways that accommodate over-height loads (up to 20 feet), over-weight and oversize loads.
18. Monitor state trunk highway conditions in support of a formal, ongoing preventive maintenance process.
19. Implement proven maintenance management practices.
20. Improve the department’s existing maintenance management tools.
21. Implement work zone and lane-closure management strategies and tools to maintain safety and minimize impacts on travelers.
22. Continually monitor the state trunk highway network and respond to operational needs.
23. Improve motor carrier efficiency.
24. Explore approaches to improve motor carrier enforcement.
25. Support communications along state highway corridors of freight significance to ensure drivers can remain informed of changing conditions.
26. Support greater use of technologies to improve the safety and efficiency of operations along corridors with high freight movement frequencies
27. Support an increase in the availability of truck parking and related infrastructure at state-owned facilities and raise the awareness of its availability.
28. Identify freight-specific safety concerns and development strategies for solutions.
29. Assist in providing asset management strategies and tools for local governments to ensure that selected system preservation improvements provide cost-effective service life extension.
30. Work with local entities to identify and address key safety issues on the local system.
31. Partner with local governments to manage and invest in the local road and bridge network.

1. Continue to support the existence of locally-organized, locally-staffed Rail Transit Commissions.
2. Continue state assistance programs for rail improvements.
3. Investigate new policies and new financing strategies for projects that improve freight service.
4. Work with railroads to ensure that appropriate rail service will be provided to all shippers statewide.
5. Continue to monitor changes in international trade flows and work with communities that are impacted by dramatic changes in train frequencies.
6. Address rail crossing safety for vehicles, pedestrians, and bicyclists.
7. Work with partners and stakeholders to ensure the safety and security of the rail transportation system.
8. WisDOT will continue to work with different stakeholders following the conclusion of the FAC’s Intermodal Subcommittee.
9. Continue to support shipper access to the rail service network.
10. Continue to monitor Chicago’s effect on Wisconsin’s freight service.
11. Monitor for the potential changes widely-adopted CAV truck platooning could have on the economics of certain types of freight movements in the state and nationally.
12. Preserve rail corridors, including rights-of-way, for transportation use through public ownership where appropriate.
13. Preserve Wisconsin’s branch and short line network.

1. Continue state assistance programs for harbor and waterway improvements which are all critical to Wisconsin’s transportation system.
2. Advocate for federal funding for navigation and environmental improvements for the Upper Mississippi River-Illinois River Waterway and improvements to the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway System.
3. Encourage comprehensive harbor and waterfront land use planning.
4. Examine and address roadway issues at ports.
5. Continue to coordinate with state, regional, and international partners, as well as explore the development of a maritime strategy for Wisconsin, to support maritime transportation as part of a safe, efficient, and seamless freight transportation system.

1. Preserve Wisconsin’s airport system infrastructure to aid economic growth.
2. Address airport system needs through the Airport Improvement Program, coordination with owners and operators, and State Airport System Plan update efforts.

1. Apply the Utility Accommodation Policy to all types of pipelines In Wisconsin.
2. Monitor trends in crude oil movements and their impact on other transportation users.
3. Coordinate with natural gas pipeline construction and participate in emergency response.
4. Enable modal connections, diversity and provide system resiliency for petroleum product pipelines.

1. Retain a freight focus within WisDOT to understand freight needs across the state and to integrate freight transportation policies into department planning and investment decision-making processes.
2. Retain the role of facilitator and advocate for freight between public and private interests.
3. Collect and analyze data to support freight planning.
4. Support Wisconsin communities and businesses by providing transportation-related grant and loan assistance.
5. Continue convening WisDOT’s Freight Advisory Committee and seeking stakeholder involvement.
6. Use Performance Measures to Monitor the Freight System.
7. Coordinate with Public and Private Sector Freight Stakeholders.
8. Serve as a resource for freight information

1. Monitor national best practices and other initiatives related to reducing freight’s impact on the environment.
2. Incorporate environmental justice in all planning, programming, and project decisions and activities.
3. Comply with federal and state environmental laws, regulations, and executive orders relevant to transportation and support future standards and programs.
4. Support and fulfill the cooperative agreement between the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and WisDOT, and other current and future interagency agreements.
5. Monitor state and national efforts and be prepared to address potential future greenhouse gas regulations, pursuant to changes in regulation.
6. WisDOT will balance transportation needs with the department’s environmental responsibilities by avoiding, minimizing, or compensating impacts to the natural and human environment.

Freight shippers and receivers rely primarily on trucks using the state’s highway system. WisDOT has spent the past 10 years improving roadway conditions for passengers and freight alike by improving bridge structures, pavement conditions, operations, and capacity.

Truck Bottlenecks

The top 25 truck bottleneck locations in Wisconsin are located along major freight routes. Seventeen of these congestion points are in Milwaukee County. Due to the freight movement inefficiencies posed by bottlenecks and the associated costs of delay to the economy, the need to improve truck bottlenecks has impacts on statewide prosperity and the environment. Resolving existing bottlenecks is a priority and will require a combination of capacity, operational, and maintenance improvements.

Reliability/Redundancy

As more freight is moved along Wisconsin’s highways, improving the efficiency and reliability of the highway system will have growing importance.

Safety

Wisconsin’s Strategic Highway Safety Plan acknowledges the need for improved safety for large trucks and provides an overview of activities to support this goal. The overarching freight safety needs identified through the analysis within this plan include:

• Improve truck safety through inspections and enforcement
• Increase the availability of truck parking
• Reduce the number of weight restricted bridges, particularly on secondary roads
• Increase safety at railway-highway grade crossings
• Improve incident management through better coordination and decision-making

New and Emerging Truck/Roadway Technologies

New and emerging technologies could significantly improve the safety, efficiency, and reliability of the highway freight network. There are several technologies that show promise in addressing these needs, but the level of acceptance and adoption is currently unknown. WisDOT will develop strategies to outline its role in this landscape related to:

• Autonomous trucks and truck platooning
• Truck electrification
• E-Commerce deliveries
• Environmental regulations/concerns
• Connectivity/broadband
• Economic and financial implications

Wisconsin’s freight rail needs have changed resulting primarily from decreases in rail commodities and significant changes in departure schedules and delivery methods. These changes have presented new challenges that need to be addressed going forward:

• Ensuring local business access, especially in smaller communities
• Improving at-grade crossing safety
• Increasing vertical and horizontal clearances, where warranted
• Addressing rail line and bridge weight restrictions
• Resolving bottlenecks

The Great Lakes and M-35 Marine Highway corridor system and ports provide an important resource in Wisconsin’s integrated, multimodal transportation system. To ensure it remains a vital part of this network, locks, dams, and ports must be maintained and prepared for future growth.

• Ongoing maintenance and increased lock and dam capacity
• Decreased environmental footprint of marine shipping
• Increased adoption of technology for more transparent tracking of shipments
• Improved inland access to maritime port terminals
• Carrier/terminal operator assistance in transitioning from coal shipping to other commodities

Emerging technologies for regional and local deliveries by air present unique opportunities to improve package delivery in Wisconsin but might also require improving connections between urban and rural air cargo facilities, assessing the ability of air cargo facilities to accommodate changes and reviewing state regulations as it relates to air cargo delivery.